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Activity indicator increases in October. Prices in industrial production decrease more intensely and consumer prices continue to decelerate
Monthly Economic Survey
Activity indicator increases in October. Prices in industrial production decrease more intensely and consumer prices continue to decelerate - November 2023
21 December 2023

Summary

The industrial production price index registered a year-on-year rate of change of -6.2% in November (after -4.9% in October), presenting a negative rate of change for the eighth consecutive month. The grouping of Energy continued to be decisive for the reduction of the total index, with a rate of -18.9%. Excluding the energy component, this index decreased by 2.3% in November, a new minimum of the current series. The index for consumer goods recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 1.8% (2.8% in the previous month), extending the deceleration profile that began in December, after reaching in November 2022 the highest growth of the current series (16.2%).

The year-on-year rate of change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 1.5% in November, 0.6 percentage points lower than in the previous month. The year-on-year rate of change of energy products index stood at -12.4% (-12.1% in the previous month) and the index for unprocessed food products decelerated to 3.5% (growth of 4.0% in October). On the external side, the implicit prices of exports and imports of goods, in October, registered year-on-year rates of change of -4.6% and -5.9%, respectively (-4.7% and -6.9% in September). Excluding petroleum products, the decreases were less intense, of -2.9% in exports and -4.7% in imports.

The short-term indicators for economic activity from the perspective of production, available for October, point, in year-on-year terms, to an acceleration in volume in construction and in nominal terms in services, and to less intense declines in industry. From the expenditure perspective, the economic activity indicator increased in year-on-year terms in September and October, after decreasing in August. The Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) indicator presented a positive year-on-year growth for the seventh consecutive month, with the private consumption indicator recording a slightly less intense year-on-year growth than that observed in the previous month. The economic climate indicator, which summarizes the balances of responses to questions relating to business surveys, increased in November.

In October, according to the provisional monthly Labour Force Survey, the unemployment rate (16 to 74 years old), seasonally adjusted, was 6.7%, 0.1 percentage points higher than in the previous month (6.3% in July and 6.1% in October 2022). The labour underutilization rate (16 to 74 years old) stood at 11.9%, 0.1 percentage points more than in September (11.5% three months ago and in October 2022). Employed population (16 to 74 years old), seasonally adjusted, increased by 1.1% in year-on-year terms (1.5% in September) and decreased 0.2% compared with the previous month. 


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