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Economic activity indicator stabilizes and economic climate indicator decreases
Monthly Economic Survey
Economic activity indicator stabilizes and economic climate indicator decreases - January 2019
19 February 2019

Summary

In the Euro Area (EA), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registered a year-on-year growth rate of 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018 (1.6% in the previous quarter). In January, the consumer confidence and the economic sentiment indicators decreased in the EA. The prices of raw-materials and oil presented monthly growth rates of 0.1% and 3.3%, respectively (0.5% and -11.5% in December).
In Portugal, GDP presented a year-on-year growth rate of 1.7% in the fourth quarter (2.1% in the previous quarter), while, in comparison with the previous quarter, GDP increased by 0.4% (0.3% in the third quarter of 2018). The economic activity indicator, available until December, stabilized, and the economic climate indicator, already available for January, decreased. The quantitative indicator of private consumption accelerated in December, reflecting the more intense positive contribution of both components, durable and non-durable consumption. The Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) indicator decelerated in December, due to the less intense positive contribution of all components, transport material, machinery and equipment and construction. In nominal terms, the exports and imports of goods accelerated in December, presenting year-on-year growth rates of 1.4% and 8.7%, respectively (-0.4% and 6.4% in November).
Considering the economic activity from the production perspective, the industrial production presented negative year on-year rates of change in the last six months and the industry turnover index decelerated between July and December. The construction turnover index also decelerated, while the turnover index in services accelerated in December.
In the fourth quarter of 2018, the unemployment rate was 6.7%, the same rate recorded in the two previous quarters and 1.4 percentage points below the rate registered in the same quarter of 2017. Total employment decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2018, from a year-on-year growth rate of 2.1% in the third quarter to 1.6%.
The year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 0.5% in January (0.7% in December), with a change rate of -0.3% in the goods component (0.1% in the previous month) and 1.6% in the services component (same rate as the previous month).


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