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Economic activity indicator stabilizes and economic climate indicator decreases slightly
Monthly Economic Survey
Economic activity indicator stabilizes and economic climate indicator decreases slightly - July 2019
20 August 2019

Summary

In the Euro Area (EA), real GDP presented a year-on-year growth rate of 1.1% in the 2nd quarter of 2019 (1.2% in the previous quarter). In July, the consumer confidence indicator increased and the economic sentiment decreased in the EA. In the same month, the raw materials and oil prices presented monthly rates of change of -2.0% and 0.2%, respectively (2.5% and -10.8% in June).
In Portugal, according to the flash estimate, GDP increased by 1.8% in volume in the 2nd quarter, compared with the same period of 2018 (the same as in the 1st quarter), while the chain growth rate was if 0.5% in the first two quarters of the year. The economic activity indicator, available until June, stabilized whereas the economic climate indicator, available for July, decreased slightly. The quantitative indicator of private consumption decelerated in June, due to the less intense positive contribution of the non-durable component. In the same month, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) indicator decelerated, reflecting the less intense positive contributions of the construction and machinery and equipment components.
In nominal terms, exports and imports recorded year-on-year rates of change of 1.0% and 6.8% in June, respectively (5.5% and 12.0% in May). Considering the economic activity from the production perspective, there was both a real and nominal decrease in industry, as well as a deceleration in nominal terms in services and in real terms in construction.
In the 2nd quarter of 2019, the unemployment rate was 6.3%, 0.5 p.p. below the rate of the previous quarter (6.7% in the same period of 2018). Total employment decelerated, from a year-on-year change rate of 1.5% in the 1st quarter to 0.9% in the reference quarter, while active population registered a year-on-year growth rate of 0.4% (0.3% in the previous quarter).
The year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was -0.3% in July (0.4% in June), with a -0.7% rate of change in the goods component (-0.3% in the previous month) and 0.3% in the services component (1.5% in the previous month).


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