Summary
Accordingly with the flash estimate compiled by EUROSTAT, in the 2nd quarter of 2010, the Euro Area (EA) and the European Union (EU27) GDP registered a year-on-year change rate of 1.7% (0.6% and 0.5% in the previous quarter, respectively). In July, the consumer confidence indicator increased tenuously in the Euro Area (EA) and slightly decreased for the third consecutive month in the European Union (EU27). In the same month, the raw materials and the oil prices continued to register strong year-on-year growth rates, although less significant than the observed in the previous months.
In Portugal, the GDP flash estimate points to a year-on-year change rate of 1.4% in the 2nd quarter of 2010, 0.4 p.p. below the observed in the previous quarter, reflecting the less positive contributions of both the domestic demand and the net external demand. In the 2nd quarter, the economic activity indicator maintained the upward movement observed in the three previous quarters. The private consumption indicator slightly increased in the 2nd quarter of 2010, led by the positive contribution of both components, durable and non-durable consumption. In the same quarter, the GFCF indicator diminished less intensely, driven by the evolution of the transport material and construction components. Concerning the international trade of goods, in the 2nd quarter of 2010 imports and exports recorded positive year-on-year nominal change rates, shifting from 8.0% and 14.8% in the 1st quarter of 2010 to 13.2% and 15.4%, respectively. The economic climate indicator recovered in the last quarter, and stabilized in July. However, the behaviour of the majority of the analysed indicators may still be influenced by the strong reduction of the economic activity recorded in 2009.
In the 2nd quarter of 2010, the unemployment rate stabilized in 10.6%, 1.5 p.p. more than in the same quarter of 2009 and the highest rate for the series started in 1998. Employment shifted from a -1.8% year-on-year change rate in the 1st quarter of 2010 to -1.7%.
In July, the year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 1.8%, 0.6 p.p. higher than the observed in the previous month. Excluding energy and unprocessed food products, the year-on-year change rate was 0.6% (-0.2% in June). In July the prices of the goods and services components registered growth rates of 2.4% and 1.2% (1.5% and 0.7% in June, respectively). The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) was superior in Portugal comparing with the EA for the first time since August 2007, fixing a differential of 0.2 p.p..