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The Lee-Carter Method for forecasting mortality
Edviges Coelho > Demographic Studies Review > INE, 2005, p. 25 - 34

Summary

In 1992, Lee and Carter presented a new method to modelling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates. Originally applied to USA mortality data, the Lee- Carter method has gained importance mainly because of the quality of the its
empirical results. In 2001, E. Coelho (2001) has applied the Lee – Carter method to Portuguese mortality data.
In this work, we present the method proposed by Lee and Carter as well as some of its developments and modifications. The results obtained by Coelho (2001) are also presented having in mind the observed values and the projection of life expectancy made available by NSI.

keywords: Lee-Carter method, mortality, life expectancy.


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